November 2024 Friday Forum

posted on Friday, November 1, 2024 in Government Affairs

The November Friday Forum featured Dr. Chris Larimer, Professor of Political Science at UNI and regular political commentator for KWWL and Iowa Public Radio. Dr. Larimer’s program was aimed at giving the audience (the largest in Friday Forum history) some thoughts and tools they need to better understand the outcomes of Tuesday’s election. Larimer shared research on how polling is often very accurate, but at the same time can miss the mark completely, as it has done several times in recent history. He also shared troubling research addressing the growing partisan divide and how people affiliate with political parties much as they do with sports teams. For instance, if you are a Bear’s fan, you are not going to cheer for the Packers. If one believes they are a Democrat or a Republican, it is rather unusual for them to vote for candidates from the other party. The rise in partisanship has led to more straight-ticket voting, and even if someone says they are independent, they will often lean toward one party or the other.

Larimer also talked about the competitiveness of Iowa elections for Congressmen or Congresswomen. Compared on a national basis where other states see incumbents win elections 94% of the time, in Iowa, it is more like 81%, validating results showing Iowa is more likely to defeat an incumbent than other states.

Dr. Larimer took questions from audience members, helping them be ready to understand the outcomes of the election and the likelihood that results for President and perhaps other races may not be finalized that night and could take days. It was an enlightening presentation and provided value for all who attended.

Steve Firman

Director of Government Affairs

steve@growcedarvalley.com